Future-Proofing Healthcare: Evidence-Based Horizon Scanning Frameworks for Emerging Medical Technologies
Horizon scanning refers to the systematic identification of early indicators of potentially significant developments. These can include weak signals, trends, wild cards, persistent issues, risks, and threats—often focusing on areas that challenge conventional thinking or assumptions. The approach can be either broad and exploratory or targeted to specific fields, depending on the objectives of the project or task. It seeks to assess what remains constant, what may evolve, and what is undergoing continuous change within a given time frame, which can span short-, medium-, or long-term horizons. The scanning process typically employs a set of criteria to search for and filter relevant information.
In the healthcare decision-making context, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical need for early detection of wild cards—high-impact, high-uncertainty events—and the continuous monitoring of weak signals, which are early warnings or developments too incomplete to fully predict their implications. As a method, horizon scanning has become a vital tool in healthcare decision-making. This often involves gathering insights about emerging science and technology. More specifically, for medical health technologies (MedTech), the academic community has yet to establish a formal methodological framework for horizon scanning innovation in this field.
